MLB betting: Five best bets for Tuesday's MLB slate

Dodgers vs. Nationals

Tuesday, April 23, 6:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Washington hands the ball to left-hander Patrick Corbin on Tuesday, and he should be a solid fade candidate. Once again putting together a fade-worthy campaign, Corbin is 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP through four starts.

His underlying metrics are just as poor, ranking in the 18th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. The left-hander also ranks in the 17th percentile in whiff percentage and 10th percentile in strikeout percentage, which is how we'll fade Corbin on Tuesday.

Over his past seven starts against Los Angeles, Corbin is 0-5 with a ridiculous 12.13 ERA. He recorded three or fewer punchouts in five of those seven outings, and we can catch his strikeout prop at 3.5 on Tuesday with the under returning +105.

On the other side, the Dodgers rank in the top half of the league in K% when facing left-handed pitching this season.

Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105 · Play to +100)

Astros vs. Cubs

Tuesday, April 23, 7:40 p.m. ET, TBS
Cubs ML +100 (FanDuel)

By John Feltman

J.P. France has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in all of baseball over the last two seasons, and he draws another bad matchup tonight against the Cubs. Chicago ranks seventh in the majors in runs scored and 10th in home runs.

In a small sample size, the Cubs' lineup is 6-16 against France lifetime, with one home run and four RBIs. The reason France struggles is that he doesn't throw very hard (92 mph average fastball in 2024) and is failing to keep the ball on the ground.

Although his good fortune is finally starting to run out, many people are still deceived by France's numbers in 2023. He enters the start with a 16.7% K rate and 1.67 WHIP.

Not only is France struggling, but the Cubs hitters rank in the top five in exit velocity. There are going to be a lot of hard-hit balls early, which should propel them to an early lead.

Jordan Wicks takes the mound for the Cubs, and despite his 5.29 ERA being less than desirable, he has struck out 24 batters in 17 innings — good for nearly a 13 K/9 average. Plus, his xFIP sits under 4.00.

He has not kept the ball on the ground, but I believe he can sneakily have a strong start here. The Astros' bats have been inconsistent, and they were just dominated by the Nationals' pitching staff.

Even if France manages to luck his way out of his start unscathed, the Astros' bullpen ranks third-to-last in ERA. Considering how poorly the 'Stros have been playing, I think it's a gift to grab the Cubs at even money here.

Pick: Cubs ML +100

Mariners vs. Rangers

Tuesday, April 23, 8:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Dane Dunning Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Caesars)

By Cody Goggin

This is not the first time I've written about Dane Dunning’s strikeout props this season, and it probably won’t be the last either.

Dunning has continued to defy the odds this season. He has a 3.91 ERA despite not pitching particularly well. His xERA sits at 6.87, and his FIP comes in at 6.21.

Among 103 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season, Dunning ranks 87th in Stuff+, 102nd in Location+ and 100th in Pitching+. He ranks in the fifth percentile in fastball velocity, sixth percentile in xERA, third percentile in average exit velocity, third percentile in barrel percentage and sixth percentile in hard-hit percentage. Dunning also sits 15th in walk rate allowed this season.

I don’t believe Dunning is a particularly good starting pitcher, and by most metrics, he has been among the worst in baseball this season despite his results not reflecting that.

I don't think he'll go over this total, and there's also a decent chance for a blowup that forces him to leave the game early.

Tonight, he will be taking on the Mariners, who have struck out at the second-highest rate this season. However, I think that's what is pushing this number up to where it is. When looking at strikeout props, I don’t believe the opponent plays as big of a role as the market thinks.

Dunning’s strikeout total of 5.5 ranks among my model’s biggest edges to the under today. At -115, the market is implying there's a 53.5% chance he goes under this number. Meanwhile, I have him at 77.8% to go under.

I project Dunning for 4.09 strikeouts today with a median of 4, so I think that this is a fantastic bet to make at this number.

Pick: Dane Dunning Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 · Play to -170)

Padres vs. Rockies

Tuesday, April 23, 8:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
F5 Under 5.5 (FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Padres offense was held at bay on Monday after leaving a small island of baserunners on throughout the contest. Tonight, the Padres take on Ryan Feltner, who's off to a decent start in 2024.

Feltner has been generating punchouts and a lot of groundball contact, which is significant when pitching at Coors Field. He has a sparkling 31% CSW% and ranks top-15 among all starting pitchers in swinging strike rate.

The Rockies will face Michael King, who received a ton of hype after he was acquired in the Juan Soto trade. King is coming off a dominant start in which he went 7 2/3 innings and punched out 10.

King possesses a 32.8% CSW% and a fabulous 2.66 ERA. The Rockies offense has been lifeless most of the season, and they continue to struggle despite playing in a very favorable hitting environment.

The Rockies' bullpen is horrendous, so I'd much rather take my chances with both of these starters in the early going.

Pick: F5 Under 5.5 (-120)

Mets vs. Giants

Tuesday, April 23, 9:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 7.5 (Bet365)

By D.J. James

Luis Severino looks like he did before his injuries. His groundball rate is elite at 59%, and his xERA sits under 4.00 with an ERA of 2.14. Sure, hard contact has been a bit of an issue, but if he can get back to not walking hitters, he will be in better shape.

Logan Webb is an elite groundball pitcher who limits hard contact and has plus run value on all of his pitches. His xERA is a touch higher than it has been in the past, but groundball pitchers can usually have a bit of leeway. Since he has an above-average walk rate, he could pitch deep into this game.

Now, the Mets have a walk rate over 10% against righties, but overall, they have a wRC+ mark of 102. They're a little above average and have been hot lately, but Webb should still force plenty of groundballs.

The Giants own a wRC+ below 100 and a sub-.700 OPS against righties, which doesn't bode well against Severino. The Mets, meanwhile, have a team xFIP under 4.00 in the bullpen and are striking out almost 30% of batters.

San Francisco owns a bullpen xFIP of 4.01 and a 21.4% strikeout rate, and it's walking less than 9% of hitters as a bonus.

Overall, pitching should dominate this game. Severino has the ability to lock down the Giants, and Webb should keep the ball on the ground. Take the under in San Francisco to 7.5.

Pick: Under 7.5 or Better