Every general manager has certain preferences that will guide the positioning of their draft boards. It’s not a perfect science, but at the same time there will be certain markers that will create buckets or pockets that players will fall in to.
These include things like character and how well guys do in interviews. How well they can explain football concepts and theories on a whiteboard. Their tape. Athletic testing is a factor as well. Bucs general manager Jason Licht is no different.
A few weeks ago, I did a breakdown of Licht’s preferences when it came to high-round picks as it pertained to their overall Relative Athletic Scores (RAS). More recently, Arjun Menon, a graduate student at the University of Michigan, who has interned with the New York Jets and Pro Football Focus and recently had his first appearance on NFL Network, tweeted out some research he pulled about weighted testing averages for Jason Licht’s draft picks.
A look at the weighted testing averages for players that Bucs GM Jason Licht has targeted in his tenure for each position. Generally targets EDGEs who are heavier than avg, and likes athleticism from his OTs with a high broad and vertical jumphttps://t.co/8RTcSBJqWj pic.twitter.com/68EdJMifrJ
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) April 18, 2024
Menon’s method for weighting is explained in the app he links where you can visit and explore on your own. Here is his explanation:
“All of the averages on each tab are weighted by the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value of the pick where the player was taken. Players who were taken high in the draft have their athletic scores matter more than later in the draft. If there is anything that looks off numbers wise, contact me @arjunmenon100 on Twitter, and I can fix it.”
“For players testing data, combine data was used first, and if there were missing combine testing values, those were filled in using a player’s pro day data. Finally, every tab but the GM specific tab and team specific tab (where GM specific button = yes) uses all years from 2011-2023, unless specified otherwise.”
I reached out to Arjun to ask him a few questions about his findings regarding Licht.
Josh Queipo: What stood out to you the most from Jason Licht’s testing averages?
Arjun Menon: From Licht’s averages, I thought the things that stood out the most were: Big wide receivers with long arm lengths, big tight ends also with long arm lengths, explosive offensive tackles with high broad and vertical jumps, quick guards with low shuttle and 3-cone times, big interior defensive linemen in terms of height and weight, seems to take undersized linebackers with short heights even if they don’t make up for it with athleticism, heavier corners in terms of weight.
Josh Queipo: Where do you think he (Jason Licht) diverges most from the rest of the NFL?
Arjun Menon: The biggest divergences seemed to come from the wide receiver position where the height, weight, arm lengths were all near the top of the league. But he doesn’t just focus on size for each position as his linebacker picks have been on the smaller side, and even someone like Devin white was only 6-foot coming out of LSU.
Based on Arjun’s findings, and using the MockDraftable.com database, here are a few players who fit Jason Licht’s criterion (Top 5 by metric):
WR – Arm length
Johnny Wilson – Florida State
Devaughn Vele – Utah
Tez Walker – North Carolina
Bub Means – Pittsburgh
Brendan Rice – USC
TE – Arm Length
Trey Knox – South Carolina
Dallin Holker – Washington
AJ Barner – Michigan
Brevyn Spann-Ford – Minnesota
Jared Wiley – TCU
OT – Vertical Jump
Garret Greenfield – South Dakota State
Tyler Guyton – Oklahoma
Brandon Coleman – TCU
Javon Foster – Missouri
Troy Fautanu – Washington
G – Quick with low 3-cone and short shuttle times
Brady Latham – Arkansas
C.J. Hanson – Holy Cross
Christian Haynes – Connecticut
Christian Mahogany – Boston College
Cooper Beebe – Kansas State
D-Line – Weight
T’Vondre Sweat – Texas
Justin Rogers – Auburn
McKinnley Jackson – Texas A&M
Fabien Lovett – Florida State
Zion League – Georgia
CB – Heavier weights
Ro Torrence – Arizona State
Ryan Watts – Texas
Isaiah Johnson – Syracuse
Cooper DeJean – Iowa
Cam Hart – Notre Dame
Does this mean that Licht will absolutely draft players exclusively from this group? No.
Does it mean he will only look at these factors? Again, no.
Just last year he bucked the trend with first-round pick Calijah Kancey.
But these tendencies can help outline some players he may be targeting, and it can improve hit rate for who Licht may be pursuing. And people like Arjun are making it easier for fans and media alike to understand the thinking of front offices around the league.
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